Climate change: Arctic Ocean may see first ice-free day in 2027
Climate change: Arctic Ocean may see first ice-free day in 2027
A new study has suggested that the Arctic Ocean could experience its earliest ice-free day within three years from the 2023 sea ice area (SIA) minimum equivalent conditions, implying that the first summer to nearly eliminate all of the Arctic’s sea ice could occur as soon as 2027. According to a Down To Earth report, the new study, published in the journal Nature Communications December 3, 2024, made the projection by utilising advanced computer models to predict the timing of this unprecedented event.
The researchers Celine Heuze (University of Gothenburg, Sweden) and Alexandra Jahn (University of Colorado Boulder, US) said that “there is a non-zero probability of an ice-free day before 2030”.
Researchers identified that the primary driver of the rapid transition to the first ice-free day within three to six years will be a warmer atmosphere during the previous winter and spring, causing a year-round loss of sea ice mass, reported Down To Earth.The first ice-free year is expected to experience spring-like daily average temperatures as early as January, due to heatwaves, blockages, and/or warm air intrusions.Climate change
The study also found that storms passing over the Arctic in the days leading up to the first ice-free day will play a role. These events are projected to become more frequent as the Arctic warms, making the occurrence of the first ice-free day increasingly likely.
According to the report, the good news is that “the first ice-free day occurs in years with a 5-year running mean global temperature at or above 1.5°C compared to the pre-industrial level”. This means that if the warming levels are kept below the Paris Agreement target of 1.5 °C of global warming, ice-free days could potentially still be avoided.Although the first ice-free day holds great symbolic importance, it doesn’t signify that the Arctic Ocean will be ice-free every year thereafter. The initial ice-free day won’t cause dramatic changes.
“But it will show that we’ve fundamentally altered one of the defining characteristics of the natural environment in the Arctic Ocean, which is that it is covered by sea ice and snow year-round, through greenhouse gas emissions,” Down To Earth quoted researcher Alexandra Jahn as saying.Climate change
Arctic sea ice shrank to near-record lows in the Northern Hemisphere this summer, likely reaching its smallest extent of the year on September 11, 2024, according to NASA and the National Snow and Ice Data Center. This decline is part of a long-term trend of shrinking and thinning ice in the Arctic Ocean.For the past 46 years, satellite observations have consistently shown increased melting during the summer and reduced ice formation in the winter.
Nathan Kurtz, the head of NASA’s Cryospheric Sciences Laboratory, observed that sea ice is not only diminishing in size but also becoming younger.”The overwhelming majority of ice in the Arctic Ocean is thinner, first-year ice, which is less able to survive the warmer months. There is far, far less ice that is three years or older now,” Down To Earth quoted Kurtz as saying.Climate changeAfghanistan: Taliban bans women from training to become midwives and nurses in latest diktat amid deteriorating health crisis
