Although Donald Trump considers himself a brilliant negotiator, he may not be able to bring about peace in the Middle East.

Although Donald Trump considers himself a brilliant negotiator, he may not be able to bring about peace in the Middle East.

Nov. 19: The Middle East is experiencing tremendous unrest at the same time as Donald Trump was re-elected as US president earlier this month.

The president-elect has pledged to put a stop to all conflicts. In his typical impetuous and capricious style, he has promised to help Israel swiftly complete its operations in Gaza and Lebanon and to end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours of taking office.

However, the Middle East is a complicated region. Given the shifting dynamics between Iran and its opponent, Saudi Arabia, Trump may find it challenging to strike a balance between his staunch backing of Israel and his other regional goals. Here’s what Trump can expect when he takes office in a few months.

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Breakdown of negotiations between Israel and Hamas

Qatar’s declaration that it has halted its role as a broker of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas was overshadowed by the US election.

Over the past year, the tiny, oil-rich emirate has put a lot of effort into trying to come to an agreement to stop the war. In the process, it leveraged its tight ties with Hamas, whose office and political leadership have been based in Doha, and the United States, which has its largest military base in the Middle East in Qatar. Qatar thought that doing this would help them win over the warring groups.However, its efforts did not produce anything more than a brief ceasefire last year, which resulted in the release of more than 100 Israeli hostages in exchange for 240 Palestinian prisoners.

There are several reasons for this.

For one, the two sides cannot get past a couple of main sticking points. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has resolved to eliminate Hamas completely, ruling out a temporary truce. Hamas is demanding a complete end to the fighting and total Israeli military withdrawal from Gaza.

Meanwhile, Washington has failed to play a meaningful role in the talks. While repeatedly emphasising its desire for a ceasefire, the Biden administration did not at any point put tangible pressure on Israel beyond diplomatic rhetoric.

It has also refused to cut off military aid to Israel. Instead, it approved a US$20 billion arms sale to Israel in August. This means Netanyahu has had no compelling reason to divert from his mission.

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A potential end to hostilities in Lebanon

Hopes for a ceasefire in Lebanon have grown as the likelihood of a ceasefire in Gaza has diminished.According to reports, Washington has been actively pursuing diplomatic solutions to help Israel and Hezbollah come to an agreement to put an end to the conflict there.

In southern Lebanon, around 30 kilometers north of the Israeli border, Israel wants Hezbollah to be disarmed and driven back at least past the Litani River. A security zone is to be created between the two. Lebanese authorities are expected to reject Israel’s desire to retain the ability to strike Hezbollah if necessary.

Israel has considerably weakened Hezbollah in its bombing and ground invasion of southern Lebanon at the expense of massive civilian casualties.However, just as Israel has not been able to wipe out Hamas, it has so far not succeeded in crippling Hezbollah to the extent it would be forced to accept a ceasefire on Israel’s terms. The militant group continues to possess sufficient political and military prowess to remain resilient.

Changing regional dynamics

Now, Trump re-enters the scene.

His electoral triumph has comforted Netanyahu’s government to the extent that his finance minister, Bezalel Smotrich, has asked the relevant authorities to prepare for the formal annexation of Jewish settlements in the West Bank.

Trump has been a committed supporter of Israel for a long time. During his first presidency he recognised Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and ordered the US embassy to move there. He also recognised Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights, which Israel seized from Syria in 1967.

He castigated Iran as the real villain in the region and withdrew the US from the multilateral Iran nuclear agreement. He also instigated the Abraham Accords, in which several Arab states normalised relations with Israel.

However, the Gaza and Lebanon wars, as well as the direct military exchanges between Israel and Iran over the past year, have changed the regional texture.

Trump has voiced unwavering backing of Israel against Hamas and Hezbollah, and is likely to resuscitate his “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran. This could involve strangling Tehran with stringent sanctions and blocking its oil exports, while seeking to isolate it internationally.

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Meanwhile, as a transactional leader, Trump also wants to strengthen America’s lucrative economic and trade ties with the Arab governments of the region.

However, these countries have been shaken by the scale of Israel’s Gaza and Lebanon operations. Their populations are boiling over with frustration at their leaders’ inability to counter Israel’s actions. This is nowhere more evident than in Jordan.

As a result, Saudi Arabia – America’s richest and most consequential Arab ally in the region – has lately taken the lead in voicing strong opposition to Israel. Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, has also made a path toward an independent Palestinian state a condition of normalising relations with Israel.

Further, Riyadh is strengthening its more than year-long rapprochement with its arch rival, Iran. The two countries’ defence ministers met last weekend, following a joint military exercise involving their navies.

In addition, Bin Salman has just convened a meeting of Arab and Muslim leaders in Riyadh to forge a consensual position in dealing with Israel and the incoming Trump administration.

Where is it all heading?

Trump will need to find a balance between his commitment to Israel and upholding America’s close relations with its traditional Arab allies. This will be crucial to ending the Middle East wars and rebuffing Iran.

Tehran is no longer as vulnerable to Trump’s venom as it may have been in the past. It is more powerful militarily and enjoys strong strategic relations with Russia, China and North Korea, as well as improved relations with regional Arab states.

Given the absence of a Gaza ceasefire, the thin hope of a halt to the Lebanon fighting, Netanyahu’s intransigence and Trump’s pursuance of an “Israel first” policy, the Middle East’s volatility is likely to persist.

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